Fed’s Harker: Soft Landing Possible, Recession Not Likely

Philadelphia Fed’s President Patrick Harker said he believes the central bank can bring inflation down without sending the economy into a recession, in part because the labour market is currently strong.

“We may have a few quarters of negative growth, but again, that’s not what I’m estimating, what I’m forecasting right now,” Harker said in a virtual event with the Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America, adding the economy can withstand a “measured” and “methodical” tightening of financial conditions that would bring down demand. “We don’t want to overdo it, but we have to act”, Harker said on Wednesday


Harker pointed out that the US central bank will lift rates until it is confident inflation is under control. Patrick Harker also expects the U.S. economy to grow 3% this year. He supports the central bank doing bigger rate increases at its coming meetings as it seeks to lower inflation.

“If there are no significant changes in the data in the coming weeks, I expect two additional 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July,” Mr. Harker said Wednesday in a speech text. “After that, I anticipate a sequence of increases in the funds rate at a measured pace until we are confident that inflation is moving toward the [Federal Open Market] Committee’s inflation target”, he added.