Fed’s Goolsbee Urges Caution on Rate Cuts, Says Inflation Still a Concern

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee struck a cautious tone on Monday, signaling that the U.S. central bank has yet to decide its next move on interest rates. Speaking to reporters, Goolsbee warned against rushing into rate cuts, noting that inflation remains a pressing concern even as the labor market shows signs of stability.

“I would feel uneasy about frontloading rate cuts,” Goolsbee said, emphasizing that while interest rates are expected to settle below current levels over time, the Federal Reserve must tread carefully during this transitional phase for the economy. He added that a “golden path” — where inflation falls without major damage to employment — is still possible but far from guaranteed.

The Fed official described the inflation outlook as “worrisome,” suggesting that price pressures have not yet fully subsided despite months of monetary tightening. He also pointed to mixed signals in the job market, calling the current environment “unusual,” with both hiring and firing rates at low levels. “It’s very hard to get the timing right when the economy is in transition,” Goolsbee said, adding that he remains “nervous about the inflation side of the ledger.”

Goolsbee further explained that the threshold for cutting rates is now higher than in the previous two policy meetings, reflecting the Fed’s focus on ensuring inflation is truly under control before loosening policy. While he acknowledged that several labor market indicators remain steady, he expressed caution over the low hiring rate, which he called one of the economy’s “weakest factors.”

Despite Goolsbee’s remarks, markets appeared largely unmoved. The U.S. Dollar Index held firm, edging up 0.15% to 99.85 following his comments, as investors interpreted the Fed official’s tone as neutral rather than dovish.

The Federal Reserve continues to balance its dual mandate — maintaining price stability and achieving full employment. After aggressive rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation above its 2% target, policymakers are now weighing whether conditions warrant a gradual easing of monetary policy. However, as Goolsbee’s comments underscore, the path forward remains uncertain, with inflation risks still looming large over the U.S. economy.

In short, while rate cuts may be on the horizon, Goolsbee’s message was clear: the Fed is not ready to declare victory over inflation — and patience may prove its most valuable tool in the months ahead.