Fed’s Goolsbee: The Fed needs to focus on longer trends

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday that markets tend to overreact to interest rate changes and that the Fed should maintain a slow and steady approach to reaching the neutral rate.

Key Quotes

In regards to a December rate cut or pause. I don’t like tying our hands; still more data to come.

Markets react immediately and in most extreme terms; that’s not the Fed’s timetable.

The Fed needs to focus on longer trends.

We are going to be looking at rate cuts along the lines of September Fed policymaker projections.

I am personally comfortable with not charging right towards neutral and slowing down as we approach it.

Inflation numbers have to keep improving.

If we started to see reversal on inflation progress, we would have to figure out if it is a bump.

Not a lot has changed on that in the last couple weeks.

Recent inflation has been a little higher than the target; if that is extended, it’s too high.

There’s a lot of volatility in the inflation data series.

Neutral is significantly lower than where the Fed policy rate is now.

If productivity growth stays higher than trend, we need to be careful relying on GDP growth rate to check if the economy is overheating.

I am perfectly comfortable with disagreement within Fed over where the neutral rate is.

The dispute over the neutral rate could support slower cuts.