Fed’s Bostic Prefers Holding Rates Above 5% For A Long Time

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank should raise interest rates above 5% by early in the second quarter and then go on hold for “a long time.”

Bostic said on Monday that it is ”fair to say that the Fed is willing to overshoot”, mentioning the likelihood that services inflation will prove sticker than the Fed would want. Bostic does not see that wages are driving final goods prices.

The US Dollar was at a 7-month low, last down 0.83% at 103.05. The index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, tumbled 1.15% on Friday as investors moved into riskier assets following a mixed labour market report and dismal US PMIs.

Key Quotes

Economy still has a “fair amount” of momentum, remains robust.

Right now economy can absorb Fed policy tightening.

Base case for 2023 is GDP growth of 1%, no recession.

Think inflation can fall to about 3% this year, though it will take time for the Fed’s policy change to play out.

If there is a contraction it is going to be shallow and short.

Repeats see rates rising to between 5 and 5.25%.

Broad consensus that the Fed policy is in a restrictive place, appropriate to be much more cautious in terms of calibrating more. movements

Getting back to a more normal cadence of policy movements will be “appropriate and important”.

Rates will have to stay high for “a long time…well into 2024”.

Fair to say that the Fed is willing to overshoot.