Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade as Robust Jobs Data Signals Steady Policy

The US labor market’s surprising strength has slammed the brakes on expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets now pricing in just a 3% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at the May 6-7, 2025, meeting. April’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, showcasing robust job growth and steady wages, has shifted the narrative, suggesting the Fed may hold rates steady well into summer. Here’s why rate cut bets are crumbling, what’s driving the Fed’s calculus, and what this means for markets.

Jobs Report Crushes Expectations

April’s Nonfarm Payrolls added 177,000 jobs, soaring past forecasts of 130,000, though slightly below March’s revised 185,000. The unemployment rate remained anchored at 4.2%, defying fears of a slowdown. This vigor, despite recent tariff shocks, underscores a resilient labor market. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, and 3.8% year-on-year, missing the 3.9% forecast. While wage growth slowed, the jobs surge has convinced markets that the Fed, under Chair Jerome Powell, has little reason to ease policy soon.

Rate Cut Odds Plummet

Just days ago, markets saw a 30% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in May, per Chicago Board of Trade data. Now, that probability has collapsed to 3%, reflecting the jobs report’s impact. The Fed’s dual mandate—balancing employment and inflation—leans heavily on the latter, especially with tariffs threatening price spikes. The strong labor data suggests economic stability, reducing the urgency for rate cuts. Markets now expect rates to stay at 4.25%-4.50% through at least the next meeting, with some betting on no changes until mid-2025.

Tariffs Loom as Inflation Wildcard

The “Liberation Day” tariffs announced in April haven’t yet dented job growth, but their inflationary potential is a growing concern. Higher import costs could push prices up, forcing the Fed to maintain restrictive rates to tame inflation. The jobs data, collected post-tariff announcement, offers a pre-impact snapshot, leaving markets cautious. If future reports show sustained hiring without runaway inflation, the Fed’s steady stance will hold. But tariff-driven cost pressures could complicate this delicate balance.

What’s Next for Markets

The fading rate cut hopes signal a Fed committed to stability, but markets aren’t celebrating yet. The Dollar may face pressure if tariff fears outweigh jobs optimism, while bond yields could climb as rate expectations harden. Next week’s PMI and consumer confidence data will test whether this labor strength endures. For now, the Fed’s hawkish tilt is clear: a hot jobs market means no rush to cut rates. Investors should buckle up for a bumpy ride as trade policies and economic data reshape the outlook.