Fed Delivers December Rate Cut, Markets Eye Powell’s Next Move

The Federal Reserve capped its final meeting of 2025 with a widely anticipated decision: a 25‑basis‑point cut to the Federal Funds Target Range, bringing rates down to 3.50%–3.75%. The move, telegraphed well in advance, matched market expectations and immediately shifted attention to Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance on what comes next.

In its statement, the Fed signaled caution, suggesting that further easing will hinge on the “extent and timing” of economic developments. Policymakers acknowledged that growth remains moderate, job creation has slowed, and unemployment has edged higher. Inflation, meanwhile, has ticked up from earlier in the year and continues to hover above comfort levels, leaving the outlook clouded with uncertainty.

The central bank also announced new reserve‑management operations, beginning December 12 with an initial $40 billion purchase of Treasury bills. Officials noted that buying will remain elevated for several months before tapering off, while the operational cap on overnight repo facilities will be lifted.

The vote revealed divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee: nine members backed the quarter‑point cut, while Miran argued for a deeper half‑point reduction. In contrast, Goolsbee and Schmid preferred holding rates steady, underscoring the challenge of balancing risks to both inflation and employment.

Fresh projections from the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) show little change in the longer‑term outlook. Policymakers expect the benchmark rate to settle around 3.6% at the end of 2025, gradually easing to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. The path beyond remains uncertain, with wide divergence among officials. Forecasts point to unemployment at 4.4% in 2026, inflation moderating to 2.4%, and GDP growth improving to 2.3%—a notable upgrade from September’s 1.8% estimate.

Markets reacted swiftly. The U.S. dollar slipped, erasing part of its recent gains, as Treasury yields fell across maturities. The Dollar Index retreated below the 99.00 mark, reflecting investor recalibration in light of Powell’s cautious tone and the Fed’s signal that the pace of future cuts will be measured.

With the December cut now behind them, investors are left parsing Powell’s words for clues. The Fed’s balancing act—between inflation risks and employment concerns—will define the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy in 2026 and beyond, setting the stage for a pivotal year in global markets.