Explainer: OPEC Sticks to Oil Demand Outlook for 2026 and 2027

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has reaffirmed its outlook for global oil demand over the next two years, signaling confidence that consumption growth will remain solid despite economic uncertainty and energy transition pressures.

In its latest monthly assessment, the group kept its forecast unchanged, projecting global oil demand to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, followed by a further 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027. The steady outlook suggests that recent market volatility has not altered expectations for medium-term demand trends.


Where the Growth Is Coming From

According to the report, most of the demand increase is expected to come from non-OECD economies, which are projected to add roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 alone. These countries continue to benefit from expanding industrial activity, infrastructure development, and rising energy needs tied to economic growth.


In contrast, oil demand in OECD countries is forecast to grow more modestly, by around 150,000 barrels per day, reflecting slower population growth, efficiency gains, and a gradual shift toward alternative energy sources.


Travel, Transport, and Industry Lead the Way

OPEC highlighted several key drivers supporting its outlook. Strong air travel demand remains a major pillar, as global passenger traffic continues to recover and expand. Road transport is also expected to contribute, particularly through trucking and diesel use linked to trade and logistics.
Beyond transportation, the organization pointed to industrial, construction, and agricultural activity—especially in emerging markets—as additional sources of sustained oil consumption over the coming years.


2027 Outlook Remains Firm

Looking further ahead, OPEC expects demand growth in 2027 to remain “healthy,” with non-OECD countries once again accounting for the bulk of the increase. This reinforces the view that global oil consumption growth is increasingly shaped by developing economies rather than mature markets.


What It Means for the Market

By maintaining its forecasts, OPEC is sending a message of continuity and stability to oil markets. The unchanged outlook suggests that, despite concerns over slowing growth in some regions and the long-term energy transition, oil demand is still expected to rise at a meaningful pace in the medium term.
For traders and policymakers alike, the message is clear: while the global energy mix is evolving, oil is set to remain a central component of economic activity through at least the end of this decade.