Expectations On Australian Employment Report

Australia is expected to report July’s employment figures on Thursday, August 19 at 01:30 GMT and as financial markets get closer to the release time, economists have published their expectations on the upcoming employment data.

Australia is expected to have added 25K positions in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is set to remain at the current 3.5%. Additionally, the Participation Rate is also seen as stable, at 66.8%.

For July, some economists expect another solid rise in employment of 40K which should see the unemployment rate edging down to 3.4%, even with a small rise in participation, on its way to sub-3%.

There is an around trend forecast of 50K. Another point of view supports the expectation of further 0.1% increase in participation to 66.9% limiting the fall in unemployment to 0.1ppt to 3.4%.”

July is a seasonally strong month for job gains and we look for the unemployment rate to trend lower. Another robust labour report could give the RBA the assurance that the economy can withstand a cash rate of 3% by end-2022.