Expectations of another ECB big rate hike in December

The European Central Bank raised the key interest rates by 75 basis points on Thursday, as expected. Analysts at Commerzbank, point out Christine Lagarde sounded dovish at the press conference but they still see that another big rate hike for the December meeting remains on the table.

Key Quotes:
“After the press conference it is less clear than before whether the ECB will raise its key interest rates by another 75 basis points at its next meeting in December.

“This is because the ECB president already sees downside risks to the ECB’s economic projections, probably in view of the weak leading indicators. She said that the Governing Council will address rising recession risks at its next meeting.”

“All in all, we continue to expect the ECB to raise its key rates by another 75 basis points in December”.

“If the recession gradually becomes visible in the hard data after the turn of the year, it should slow down the pace and raise its key rates by 50 in early February and 25 in March. The rate hike process would then end at a deposit rate of 3%.”

Economists at TD Securities are still cautious near-term on the EUR/USD pair as the global growth impulse is worsening.