Eurozone HICP Forecasts

Eurostat will release Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October on Monday, October 31 at 10:00 GMT. As we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of three major banks regarding the upcoming EU inflation print.

TDS

“We look for another significant jump in EZ inflation, with headline at 10.8% and core at 5%, on the back of sharp upside surprises in Germany, Italy, and France. We think energy prices will be the main driver, although both services and core goods inflation will likely also provide upside pressure. The outlook for inflation remains highly uncertain, particularly due to prospective fiscal subsidies.”

SocGen

“We think euro area inflation will reach a new high of 10.7% in October, up 0.8pp from September. Meanwhile, we think core inflation will increase by 0.1pp to 4.9%.”

Commerzbank

“In the euroarea, the inflation rate is likely to have risen from 9.9% in September to 10.0% in October. It is true that energy prices rose only about half as much in October as in October 2021, which in itself depresses the inflation rate by 0.4 percentage points. But this effect is likely to be more than offset by the further strong rise in food prices and a further slight increase in the inflation rate excluding energy, food and beverages from 4.8% to 4.9%.”