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Europe edges higher as U.S. shutdown resolution nears; German inflation cools, Bayer jumps

European equities extended gains Wednesday, buoyed by signs Washington is close to ending the record U.S. government shutdown and by a steady stream of supportive corporate updates. By 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX rose 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 0.5%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 0.2%.

Macro backdrop: shutdown optimism, cooler German CPI

Risk sentiment remained constructive after the U.S. Senate passed a bill to reopen the government, with a House vote expected this week before presidential sign-off. The prospect of restored federal operations alleviates concerns over travel disruptions, missing data, and near-term growth. The White House’s Kevin Hassett said U.S. growth could recover to 3–4% by Q1-2026, noting the shutdown may have shaved 1–1.5pp from recent run-rates.

In Europe, German HICP eased to 2.3% y/y in October from 2.4% in September, confirming flash estimates and reinforcing the European Central Bank’s message that policy is in a “good place.” Softer inflation in the bloc’s largest economy lowers the bar for the ECB to keep rates on hold into 2026 absent fresh price shocks.

Stock movers: earnings and deals in focus

  • Bayer rallied after quarterly earnings more than doubled, driven by margin expansion in Crop Science and steady pharma growth. Management flagged higher one-offs in 2025 tied to litigation provisions and restructuring (executive buyouts).
  • E.ON reported a nine-month net income slump on a ~€400m non-cash hit from deconsolidating NEW AG, but reaffirmed 2025 guidance, supporting utilities sentiment.
  • ABN AMRO agreed to acquire NIBC Bank from Blackstone, consolidating its Dutch franchise and signaling ongoing European banking sector rationalization.
  • Infineon lifted its 2026 sales target for AI power-supply solutions, citing robust demand, and guided to moderate revenue growth despite FX headwinds—adding to the AI-infrastructure tailwind across Europe’s chip ecosystem.

Energy: crude slips after relief rally

Oil pared Tuesday’s gains as traders took profit on shutdown-end optimism: Brent −0.5% to $64.86/bbl, WTI −0.5% to $60.75/bbl. The prior session’s ≥1.5% bounce was fueled by hopes for a holiday-travel demand lift once U.S. agencies reopen; positioning normalized as markets awaited confirmation.

The take

A likely U.S. reopening, easing German inflation, and supportive micro news are sustaining Europe’s rebound from recent lows. Near term, direction hinges on the House vote timing, the resumption of U.S. data releases, and whether AI-linked capex momentum (a positive for European semis and electrics) can offset lingering growth worries. For now, the path of least resistance remains modestly higher, with dips supported by improving macro visibility and resilient earnings.

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