Euro Breaks Out of the Rising Channel 19/11/2025

The pair remains range-bound below 1.1600, failing to hold above the psychological barrier.

Technical outlook

• Structure/SMAs: A break below the prior ascending channel plus SMAs turning overhead shifts bias lower.
• Momentum: Indicators are starting to lean bearish, consistent with fading upside.

Base case (bearish trigger)

• A decisive break/4H close below 1.1580 would likely open 1.1550, then 1.1520.

Alternative / upside toggle

• Reclaiming and holding above 1.1600, and more convincingly 1.1620, would put a recovery toward 1.1670 back on the table.

Event risk

• FOMC minutes today could spark volatility; consider tighter risk controls around the release.

Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if trigger levels give way.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading CFDs involves risks, and therefore the scenarios outlined above are not a recommendation to sell or buy but rather an explanatory reading of price movement on the chart.

S1: 1.1580	R1: 1.1620
S2: 1.1550	R2: 1.1665
S3: 1.1520	R3: 1.1705