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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro Nears 2025 Highs Amid Ceasefire Optimism and Fed Caution

The EUR/USD pair extended its bullish run for a fifth straight day on Wednesday, nearing its year-to-date high around 1.1660, up 0.44% during the North American trading session. The euro’s strength was driven by renewed optimism over a U.S.-brokered Middle East ceasefire, which, despite its fragility, fueled risk-on sentiment and supported inflows into the shared currency.

A modestly weaker U.S. dollar, pressured by mixed Treasury yields, also played a role, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance during his second congressional testimony. Powell highlighted potential tariff-driven inflation risks this summer, underscoring the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates soon, with the June policy meeting keeping rates at 4.25–4.50% and forecasting varied 2025 rate paths. In contrast, the European Central Bank’s recent cut to a 2.00% Deposit Facility Rate and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s guarded outlook emphasized monetary policy divergence.

Market focus also remained on the U.S. tariff pause deadline on July 8 and ongoing EU-UK trade negotiations. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD faces resistance at the 2025 peak of 1.1641, followed by the October 2021 high of 1.1692 and the 1.1700 level, with upside momentum showing no immediate signs of fading.

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