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The EUR/USD pair has been trading in a 50-60 pip range in the last three days. The US dollar stays firm amid a positive market mood
The shared currency seesaws on Thursday North American session, courtesy of a positive market mood, while broad US dollar strength across the board helps the US dollar to keep the EUR/USD pair confined to the 1.0960-1.1000 area. At press time, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1000.
Risk appetite improved in the New York session, as portrayed by US equities rising, contrarily to European bourses, which fluctuated. The US dollar has been supported throughout the day, as reflected by the US Dollar Index up 0.16%, at 98.766, underpinned by elevated US Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark note yield up to four basis points, sitting at 2.348%.
On the Geopolitical front, Russia – Ukraine hostilities remain, while peace talks languished. Meanwhile, the NATO two-day summit has not provided EUR/USD tradable news just yet. Worth noting that according to a US official, US President Joe Biden supported the increase of NATO troops on the eastern front. Furthermore, Biden and European NATO members assess the risks of Russia’s launching a biological, chemical, or nuclear attack. Also, Biden called for Russia to be removed from the G-20.
Aside from this, Fed speakers have continued to grab headlines. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he is “comfortable” with 25 bps increases to the Federal Funds Rate but remains “open” to 50 bps increases if needed. Earlier, Minnesota Fed President Neil Kaskari said that 10-year Treasury yields remain low while emphasizing a risk of overdoing it on rate hikes.
On Friday, the Eurozone economic docket will unveil March’s IFO Business, Current Conditions, and Expectations for Germany. Across the pond, Pending Home Sales for February, the University of Michigan Consumer Expectations for March, and Fed speakers would grab the headlines.
The EUR/USD pair remains downward biased. However, as portrayed by the daily chart, in the last two days’ EUR/USD price action, the pair faltered of breaking below Tuesday’s daily low at 1.0960, leaving the EUR/USD exposed for an upward move.
If that scenario materializes, the EUR/USD first resistance will be 1.1043. Breach of the latter would expose Pitchfork’s parallel-line between the top and central ones around 1.1080, followed by 1.1100. On the flip side, the EUR/USD path of least resistance, the first support, would be 1.0960. A decisive break would expose the 1.0901 March 11 low, followed by the YTD low at 1.0806.
