EUR/USD awaits guidance from ECB Forum

The EUR/USD is struggles for fresh gains despite the weaker performance of the US dollar with the beginning of the new trading week. The pair is up 0.16% trading at 1.0909 at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions around Russia have eased as market attention turns to the ECB Central Bank Forum.

So far, it has been a steady start to the week in light of geopolitical developments over the weekend in Russia. It seems a return to normal in Moscow as the Mayor announced this morning that there would be no restrictions around the city following announcements to the contrary over the weekend.

Risk sentiment and market appetite appear unfazed as any hope for an increase in demand for safe havens has thus far failed to materialize. EUR/USD is trading flat around the 1.0900 handle as the European session begins, unable to fully capitalize on early USD weakness.

Markets could still face a few shocks should any material changes occur regarding the Russia situation with any further military aggression by the Wagner Group likely to see risk appetite affected. The fears around a potential leadership change in Russia or a Civil War type situation could stoke inflationary concerns once more as well and dent investor confidence.

Friday’s terrible Euro Area PMI data weighed on the Euro and stoked renewed recessionary concerns. The Ifo Business Climate data is due out from Germany this morning with the figure recording its first drop in May since October 2022. It will be interesting to gauge the market reaction should we see another downside miss with forecasts at 90.7 for today’s print.