Easing Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Silver

Silver (XAG/USD) has declined for three consecutive days, down over -0.90%, driven by a reduction in safe-haven demand following recent geopolitical developments. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week period before deciding on potential US intervention in the Iran–Israel conflict has eased the risk premium that previously bolstered precious metals. This pause has prompted traders to take profits, leading to a retreat in silver prices as market participants reassess their positions. As of now, silver trades near $36.00, recovering slightly from an intraday low of $35.51 during American trading hours.

Technical Signals Point to Weakening Momentum

From a technical perspective, silver’s recent uptrend shows signs of faltering. After climbing steadily within a rising channel since early June, the metal has slipped below the channel’s lower boundary, indicating a loss of buyer momentum. The 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently around $35.65, has provided dynamic support, cushioning further declines for now. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) displays a bearish divergence, drifting lower, while the Rate of Change (ROC) has entered negative territory. These indicators suggest that silver’s upward drive is losing steam, potentially opening the door to a deeper corrective phase.

Key Levels to Watch

Silver’s near-term trajectory hinges on critical price levels. A sustained move above $36.50 could signal a revival of bullish momentum, targeting resistance between $37.00 and $37.30. Conversely, failure to hold the 100-period moving average at $35.65 may lead to increased selling pressure, with support levels at $35.00 and $34.50 coming into focus. For now, the bias tilts cautiously downward unless buyers reclaim control above $36.50 with conviction.

What Lies Ahead for Silver?

The current pullback in silver prices reflects a broader recalibration in response to easing geopolitical risks. However, uncertainties surrounding the Iran–Israel situation and potential US policy decisions could quickly reignite safe-haven demand, making silver’s outlook fluid. Investors should monitor both technical indicators and geopolitical headlines closely. To navigate this market, maintaining flexibility is key—watching for a break above $36.50 to signal strength or a drop below $35.50 to confirm further weakness. In this dynamic environment, silver remains a barometer of both market sentiment and global stability.