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The pair staged a modest intraday bounce after testing the 1.1550 support zone.
Technical outlook (4H):
• RSI is attempting to unwind oversold conditions, showing early stabilisation.
• Price action remains capped by descending trendline resistance, and the 50/100 SMAs continue to act as dynamic hurdles, preserving downside pressure.
Base case:
• While below 1.1600 (and more broadly 1.1620), the path of least resistance remains lower.
• A clean break and 4H close beneath 1.1550 would open 1.1500, then 1.1450.
Alternative:
• Sustained traction back above 1.1600/1.1620 would neutralise immediate downside risk and allow a corrective push toward 1.1675.
Risk note:
Volatility risk is elevated amid ongoing trade tensions; scenario probabilities can shift quickly. Manage position size and stops accordingly.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading CFDs involves risks, and therefore the scenarios outlined above are not a recommendation to sell or buy but rather an explanatory reading of price movement on the chart.
| S1: 1.1535 | R1: 1.1625 |
| S2: 1.1495 | R2: 1.1675 |
| S3: 1.1445 | R3: 1.1720 |
