The U.S. dollar steadied near a three-month peak on Monday, with traders bracing for a thin slate of economic signals that is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. The dollar index rose 0.16% to 99.89—its highest since August 1—after the Fed’s quarter-point cut last week was paired with Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that further easing this year is far from assured without a clearer read on the economy.

A prolonged government shutdown has clouded that read. With key official releases likely delayed again, markets will lean on ADP employment and ISM PMI reports, neither of which is expected to materially move policy expectations. Several Fed regional presidents signaled discomfort with last week’s cut, and futures now price roughly a 68% chance of another 25 bp reduction in December—down from firmer odds ahead of the meeting.

In G10 FX, rate differentials continued to drive price action. The yen slipped to 154.1 per dollar, hovering near an 8½-month low despite Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s strongest hint yet at a possible December hike. The gradual pace of BoJ normalization, set against a more hawkish Fed tone, has kept pressure on the currency and drawn verbal warnings from Tokyo. The yen also traded close to last week’s record low versus the euro, around ¥177.4.

The euro dipped 0.16% to $1.1513, a three-month trough, while sterling fell 0.4% to $1.3118 as odds of a Bank of England cut this year crept higher following softer-than-expected inflation. The BoE meets this week; a minority of analysts see a 25 bp move, though market pricing implies roughly a one-in-three chance.

Commodity-linked and haven pairs showed mixed tones. The Aussie edged up 0.1% to $0.6554, supported by expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates on Tuesday after sticky core inflation. The dollar/Swiss franc climbed 0.27% to 0.8067, its strongest in over three weeks, reflecting steady demand for the greenback.

With the dollar index trapped in a 96–100 range for much of the past six months, this week’s limited data—set against policy makers’ emphasis on caution—may keep the greenback near the top of that band. Unless shutdown-delayed releases resume or the labor and inflation backdrop surprises, the path of least resistance points to a firm USD into the BoE/RBA decisions and the next round of U.S. prints.