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The U.S. dollar posted a mixed performance in Asia on Tuesday, rising against the safe-haven yen but easing versus the growth-sensitive Australian dollar as investors rotated cautiously across FX while awaiting a fuller data slate once the U.S. government reopens.
Risk tone and shutdown calculus
A Senate-approved compromise to restore federal funding—now headed to the House—kept hopes alive for an imminent end to the longest U.S. shutdown, encouraging a measured return to risk. With official releases poised to resume only after agencies restart and reschedule, traders positioned ahead of a “data catch-up” that could refine views on growth, inflation, and the December Fed decision.
BNP Paribas’s chief economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said the bank expects the economy to be “holding up nicely” with “moderate” inflation pass-through—conditions that argue for a 25 bp cut in December, followed by caution into 2026.
G10 moves
- USD/JPY: The dollar rose 0.10% to 154.28, after touching 154.495—its highest since February—as the yen stayed under pressure. Sentiment toward Japan’s currency weakened after new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged a go-slow approach to BOJ rate hikes, even as U.S. policymakers have turned more cautious on further cuts.
- AUD/USD: The greenback fell 0.25% to 0.6520, snapping a two-day advance. The Aussie benefitted from lingering risk appetite tied to shutdown progress and resilience in cyclicals.
- EUR/USD: Largely steady around 1.1555 as markets awaited a clearer U.S. data calendar.
- GBP/USD: Sterling slipped 0.40% to 1.3126 after U.K. labor data showed a notable cooling in the third quarter, reinforcing expectations the Bank of England could lean more dovish into year-end.
- USD/CHF: The Swiss franc strengthened for a fourth straight session (USD/CHF −0.15% to 0.8035) after President Donald Trump said the U.S. was working with Switzerland on a deal to lower a 39% tariff rate, bolstering CHF’s defensive appeal.
What’s next
With shutdown legislation still requiring final passage and signature, the immediate FX driver remains headline risk. Once the government reopens, attention flips to the reloaded U.S. data docket, where evidence on labor momentum and inflation will shape the Fed’s December call and the dollar’s near-term path. For now, the mix is classic “risk-on lite”: USD firmer vs havens, softer vs pro-growth FX, and range-bound vs the euro pending fresh catalysts.
