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China’s Economic Data Surpasses Expectations Amid Growth Momentum
China’s economic performance in the first two months of 2024 has exceeded analysts’ expectations, buoyed by robust retail sales, fixed asset investments, and industrial production, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, March 18th.
Key Data Highlights:
- Retail Sales: Registered a 5.5% increase, surpassing expectations of a 5.2% rise.
- Industrial Production: Jumped by 7%, outpacing estimates of 5% growth.
- Fixed Asset Investments: Saw a 4.2% increase, exceeding expectations of a 3.2% rise.
- Unemployment Rate: Recorded at 5.3% in February.
- Online Retail Sales: Showcased strong growth, surging by 14.4% annually over the first two months of the year.
Sectoral Insights:
- Real Estate Investments: Experienced a 9% decline annually in the first two months of 2024, while infrastructure investments rose by 6.3%.
- House Prices: Declined for the eighth consecutive month in February, dropping by approximately 0.3%.
Analyst Commentary:
Goldman Sachs analysts commented on the data, emphasizing the strong growth momentum in China’s first quarter, despite sector-level variations. They underscored the need for continued monetary easing, particularly in stimulating demand, to achieve the ambitious growth target of 5% for the year.
Future Expectations:
Goldman Sachs anticipates a reduction in mandatory reserve requirements by 25 basis points in the second and fourth quarters of the year to further support economic growth.
National Bureau of Statistics’ Perspective:
A spokeswoman for China’s National Bureau of Statistics cautioned that domestic demand remains insufficient. She highlighted ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector and characterized the overall economy as being in a critical recovery phase.
Amidst these dynamics, China continues to navigate a complex economic landscape, balancing growth objectives with structural adjustments and ongoing reforms. Stay tuned as developments unfold, shaping the trajectory of China’s economic recovery in the coming months.
