China’s imports of key commodities make a strong new year start

China’s imports of major commodities have made a strong start to the new year. However, caution is needed due to the potential influence of the Lunar New Year holidays, which fall entirely in February this year. This could have boosted imports of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), thermal coal, and iron ore by traders and end-users bringing forward purchases.

Iron imports are expected to be strong, with analysts estimating arrivals of 112.57 million metric tons, a record high. China customs usually doesn’t give January commodity import numbers, preferring to combine them with February figures and release a joint number in early March to avoid distortions from the new year period.

Seaborne thermal coal imports have also started strong, with 27.9 million tons, lower than December’s 31.7 million tons but still higher than January 2023’s 20.85 million tons. LNG imports have also been higher this winter, with 7.77 million tons of the super-chilled fuel arriving in January. However, volumes may ease in coming months as China enters the shoulder season between winter and summer peaks.