China Revises 2023 GDP Upwards Amid Mixed Economic Signals

---

Key Updates on GDP and Growth

1. Revised GDP Figures:
   • China’s 2023 GDP was revised upwards by 2.7% to 129.4 trillion yuan ($17.73 trillion), reflecting updated data from the fifth national economic census.
2. Growth Target for 2023:
   • Policy measures implemented late in the year helped set the economy on track to achieve the government’s growth target of “around 5%” for 2023.
3. Outlook for 2024:
   • The National Bureau of Statistics emphasized that the GDP revision would not significantly affect the growth rate for 2024.
   • However, challenges such as potential U.S. tariff hikes and subdued confidence in key sectors, including property, weigh on next year’s outlook.

---

Economic Challenges and Adjustments

1. COVID-19 and External Risks:
   • The economic census highlighted the impact of COVID-19 and shifting global dynamics over the past five years.
   • Despite these challenges, China has maintained a “generally stable trend,” according to Kang Yi, head of the National Bureau of Statistics.
2. Property Sector Concerns:
   • A severe property crisis has hindered recovery efforts, with employment in property development companies declining by 27% to 2.71 million from 2018 to 2023.
   • However, total employment in the broader property industry rose by 40.2% to 14.398 million during the same period, suggesting shifts within the sector.

---

Labor Market Insights

1. Tertiary Industry Expansion:
   • Employment in tertiary industries—including retail, transport, finance, and property—grew by 25.6%, indicating structural shifts toward service-oriented sectors.
2. Decline in Secondary Industries:
   • Jobs in secondary industries such as mining, manufacturing, and construction fell by 4.8%, reflecting a broader shift in China’s economic focus.

---

World Bank Forecasts

• The World Bank raised its 2024-2025 growth forecast for China, citing policy support and recovery measures.
• However, subdued business and household confidence, coupled with challenges in the property market, continue to act as headwinds for sustained growth.

---

Conclusion

China’s revised GDP data for 2023 paints a mixed picture of resilience amid adversity. While the economy shows signs of stability and structural transformation, macroeconomic challenges—especially in the property sector—will remain critical factors shaping its trajectory in 2024.