China Responds to Trump’s Potential Presidential Return, Prepares for Intensified U.S. Rivalry

China has stated its commitment to working with the U.S. on principles of mutual respect and peaceful coexistence as Donald Trump appears close to a presidential victory. However, Chinese strategists are preparing for a resurgence in superpower tensions over trade, technology, and security should Trump return to the Oval Office.

Chinese Foreign Ministry: Consistent Policy Toward the U.S.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning reaffirmed that China’s policy toward the U.S. remains unchanged, emphasizing “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation.” However, experts in Beijing anticipate that Trump’s re-election could strain relations significantly.

Chinese Strategy: Balancing Relations While Preparing for Conflict

Analysts suggest that while China will aim to maintain a stable personal relationship with Trump, Beijing expects confrontational U.S. policies. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that China is preparing for potentially harsh rhetoric and tariffs, especially in the trade and technology sectors. Da Wei, director at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, highlighted the difficulty in predicting Trump’s policies due to his unpredictable nature.

Trade and Technology Tensions: Tariffs and Decoupling

One major concern for China is Trump’s proposed tariffs of over 60% on Chinese imports, as well as his potential revocation of China’s most-favored-nation trading status. Given China’s current economic challenges, the prospect of a renewed trade war is unsettling for Beijing. Analysts predict that China will accelerate efforts toward self-sufficiency in technology and seek to stabilize economic ties with countries like Russia to counteract any moves toward economic decoupling initiated by a Trump administration.

China’s Global Strategy: Filling a Potential Power Vacuum

China may take advantage of Trump’s isolationist stance by strengthening alliances in the Global South, Europe, and Northeast Asia. According to Brian Wong of the University of Hong Kong, Trump’s possible anti-globalist policies could create opportunities for China to expand its influence, particularly in multilateral partnerships. Beijing has already shown signs of bolstering regional ties, with recent diplomatic gestures toward India and Japan, aiming to strengthen its standing amid potential U.S. policy shifts.

In sum, while China plans to maintain a cooperative stance, it is also strategically positioning itself to handle a Trump administration’s potentially unpredictable and confrontational policies.