Property Collapse vs. Export Boom

As China prepares to launch its 15th Five-Year Plan, the economy faces a crucial juncture. Over the past five years, the property market has collapsed, with new home sales falling over 50%, while exports have surged nearly 8% annually, reflecting China’s move into higher-value manufacturing, critical materials, and AI technologies.

Growth Challenges Ahead

Despite strong export performance, sustaining growth will be challenging. Global trade is normalizing, protectionist pressures are rising, and domestic investment in property and manufacturing is slowing. Past stimulus measures—including debt swaps, retail support, and market interventions—have provided temporary relief, but structural reforms are urgently needed.

Boosting Domestic Consumption

Looking ahead, boosting household spending will be key. Strengthening pensions, tackling youth unemployment, and expanding social welfare can increase consumption and support economic transformation.

Steering Through Trade and Policy Crosswinds

Trade tensions with the U.S., Europe, and other markets will shape policy decisions and export strategies. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan must balance stability with bold reforms. Addressing property, trade, and social challenges decisively will determine whether the country can sustain moderate growth, avoid deeper deflation, and navigate the next five years successfully.