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The USD/CAD pair has come under renewed selling pressure after failing to sustain gains above the 1.3920 resistance area.
Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Chart
Price action has slipped back below the simple moving averages, which are now positioned beneath a strong resistance zone, increasing the probability of further downside. This shift is reinforced by the pair’s break of the ascending trendline, as illustrated on the chart — a technical development that strengthens the bearish outlook in the near term.
Expected Scenario
As long as trading remains capped below the 1.3875 resistance level, downside risks are likely to prevail. A confirmed break below 1.3805 would reinforce bearish momentum, opening the way for a move toward 1.3775.
On the other hand, a return to stability above 1.3875 would temporarily invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a recovery attempt, targeting 1.3910 initially, followed by 1.3940.
Market Note:
Markets are awaiting statements from U.S. President Donald Trump today, which may trigger heightened volatility.
Risk Warning:
Market conditions remain high-risk amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, and all scenarios remain possible.
Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.
| S1: 1.3805 | R1: 1.3870 |
| S2: 1.3775 | R2: 1.3910 |
| S3: 1.3740 | R3: 1.3950 |
