Canadian CPI Preview: Forecasts From Three Major Banks

Statistics Canada will release January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, February 16 at 13:30 and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of three major banks regarding the upcoming Canadian inflation data.

NBF

“While we expect strong print for CPI ex-food and energy given labour shortages and supply chain issues, January headline could also have been upwardly impacted by surging gasoline prices (+5.1%). Otherwise, food inflation should have remained strong, driven by the upward rise in commodity prices. All in all, we expect a 0.6% increase before adjustments for seasonality (0.4% after seasonal adjustments), a print that would leave the annual inflation rate unchanged at 4.8%. We see the annual rate of the common CPI rising from 2.1% to 2.2%.”

Citibank

“Canada CPI NSA MoM (Jan) – Citi: 0.6%, median: 0.6%, prior: -0.1%; CPI YoY – Citi: 4.8%, median: 4.8%, prior: 4.8%. Generally, inflationary pressures remain elevated in H1’22r given persistent global supply issues impacting goods in particular, which has been one of the key drivers of inflation in Canada in recent months.”

CIBC

“Food prices are the main upward threat to our forecast, but given the timing of the latest transportation issues and an increase in dairy prices, February should see the largest gain in that area. Overall, we forecast a 0.5%