The USD/CAD pair continues to move within a gradual upward trajectory, in line with the bullish scenario outlined in our previous report. The pair is now approaching the 1.3940 target, currently trading near 1.3920.
Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Chart
The corrective uptrend remains firmly in control, supported by price action holding above the simple moving averages, which continue to reinforce the bullish bias. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying positive divergence after emerging from oversold territory, signaling improving momentum and strengthening the case for further upside.
Expected Scenario
As long as price remains above the immediate 1.3850 support — and more broadly above the 1.3830 zone — the upward structure remains intact. A sustained break above 1.3900 would likely accelerate gains toward 1.3940, with scope for an extension toward 1.3970.
On the downside, a renewed break below 1.3800 would weaken the bullish setup and could trigger a corrective pullback, with an initial downside target around 1.3750.
Risk Warning:
Market conditions remain high-risk amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, and all scenarios remain possible.
Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.
| S1: 1.3875 | R1: 1.3920 |
| S2: 1.3830 | R2: 1.3945 |
| S3: 1.3800 | R3: 1.3970 |
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