BOE Minutes: The Level of Activity in The First Quarter is Expected to Remain Materially Lower Than in 2019 Q4.

Following the BOE’s policy announcement, the central bank released the minutes of the meeting, with the key highlights found below (via Reuters).

“Market participants attach some weight to the possibility of a negative bank rate.
The market path for interest rates averages zero over the forecast period.
Market-implied path for bank rate has changed little since the august report, moves below zero during 2021.
Household spending and GDP are expected to pick up in 2021 Q1.
The level of activity in the first quarter is expected to remain materially lower than in 2019 Q4.
The UK trade and GDP are also likely to be affected during an initial period of adjustment.
Over the remainder of the forecast period, GDP is projected to recover further.
Recovery takes time, however, and the risks around the GDP projection are judged to be skewed to the downside.
The committee will keep the asset purchase programme under review.
If the outlook for inflation weakens, the committee stands ready to take whatever additional action is necessary to achieve its remit.
Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until it sees clear evidence of significant progress being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving. the 2% inflation target sustainably.
Sees UK GDP -11% in 2020 (August projection: -9.5%).
Sees UK GDP 7.25 in 2021 (August projection: +9%).
Sees UK GDP 6.25% in 2022 (August projection: +3.5%).
Sees UK GDP 1.75% in 2023.
Sees UK GDP -11% in 2020 (August projection: -9.5%).
Sees UK GDP 7.25 in 2021 (August projection: +9%).
Sees UK GDP 6.25% in 2022 (August projection: +3.5%).
Sees UK GDP 1.75% in 2023″