Bitcoin stabilizes near $27,000 amid reduced volatility

Traders are now questioning whether a bullish breakout is the next possible outcome for the Bitcoin price. The most famous crypto asset, though trading at $26859.14 at the time of writing, is amid an ongoing conflict between buyers and sellers, which typically precedes periods of extreme price volatility and is triggered by big events.

On Thursday, May 25, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce the annualized gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter and US durable goods orders on May 26. Bipartisan negotiations are underway to lift the debt limit to avoid a US government default ahead of June 1, but no agreement is in sight.

Analyzing whether the Bitcoin derivatives market structure resembles early April can help traders understand the odds of breaking above $29,000 if the macroeconomic environment allows.

The Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium is currently at 2%, in line with the previous two weeks. Traders should also analyze options markets to understand whether the recent correction has caused investors to become more optimistic.

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign of when arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection. The most recent range trading period initiated on May 13 displayed balanced pricing between the call and put options, reflecting how unsure traders are due to uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

The derivatives market differs from early April, when the BTC price ended its 11-day low-volatility period and Bitcoin rallied 8% from $28,300 to $30,800 in less than 24 hours.