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Bitcoin’s price surged 2.8% on July 9, 2025, marking its largest single-day gain in six days and breaking out of a tight five-day trading range between $107,350 and $109,800. This rally pushed Bitcoin above the June high of $110,530, retesting its all-time high of $112,000 set in May. The breakout flipped Bitcoin’s weekly performance into positive territory, with July gains reaching 3.8%. Strong trading volume on the breakout day, surpassing the previous 14 sessions, signaled robust market conviction. However, by Thursday, momentum slowed, with Bitcoin hovering around $111,300, indicating hesitation near this critical level.
On-Chain Signals: Profit-Taking Emerges
Recent on-chain data highlights activity from long-term holders, particularly those holding Bitcoin for seven to ten years. Movements of dormant coins often correlate with profit-taking, especially near all-time highs. This trend suggests that some long-term investors may be locking in gains, potentially capping upward momentum. Despite this, the Binance Fear and Greed Index remains neutral at 58, up slightly from 52, indicating traders are cautious but not fully committed to a bullish continuation.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin’s technical indicators remain supportive of a bullish trend. Both the daily and 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflect sustained momentum, staying above 50, while upward-trending Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) reinforce the price structure. The $110,530 level now acts as critical support, with $112,000 serving as immediate resistance. A break below $110,530 could see Bitcoin retreat to its eight-week consolidation range of $100,000 to $112,000. Conversely, a decisive move above $112,000 could signal a fresh breakout, potentially targeting $120,000 or higher by late 2025.
Macro Drivers: Policy Shifts Fuel Momentum
The rally aligns with broader market dynamics, notably influenced by recent U.S. policy developments. An executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve has bolstered investor confidence, positioning Bitcoin as a potential safe-haven asset akin to gold. This policy, coupled with global economic uncertainties and anticipated monetary easing, has driven institutional interest. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins further enhances its appeal as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation, especially as inflationary pressures persist.
Risks and Counterarguments
Despite the bullish setup, risks remain. Profit-taking by long-term holders could intensify, particularly if global economic conditions deteriorate or regulatory pressures emerge. Some argue Bitcoin’s current price reflects speculative exuberance, potentially leading to a correction toward $80,000 if support levels fail. However, strong institutional buying and historical post-halving cycles—Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving reduced supply issuance—suggest the market may absorb such pressures, maintaining a bullish trajectory.
What Lies Ahead?
Bitcoin’s breakout above $110,530 signals potential for further gains, but the $112,000 resistance and profit-taking trends warrant caution. Traders may benefit from monitoring key levels: holding above $110,530 supports a bullish outlook, while a break above $112,000 could ignite a rally toward $120,000–$140,000 by year-end. Conversely, a drop below $110,530 may signal a return to consolidation. As institutional adoption grows and macroeconomic tailwinds strengthen, Bitcoin’s role as a maturing asset class appears increasingly robust, though volatility remains a defining feature.
