Market snapshot

• Bitcoin (BTC): $112,819.3, −1.0% on the day; extends a two-session pullback after peaking near $116,000.
• Equities context: U.S. tech rallied to record highs on AI optimism, but the risk-on tone did not spill over to crypto.

Drivers

Fed in focus

• A 25 bp cut is widely expected at today’s FOMC conclusion; the cut is largely priced after softer inflation and cooler labor prints.
• The market’s swing factor is Powell’s guidance: any reluctance to signal follow-on cuts keeps real yields and USD bid, dampening BTC’s appeal.

U.S.–China headlines

• Attention turns to Thursday’s Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea.
• Early-October trade frictions coincided with a crypto flash-selloff; signs of de-escalation would aid risk sentiment, but uncertainty keeps positioning cautious near-term.

Flows & positioning

ETF signals improving—but not surging

• Glassnode notes BTC’s weekend rebound aligned with U.S. spot ETF net inflows turning positive, yet the magnitude remains well below early-year bull-run peaks—consistent with a range-bound bias.
• SoSoValue data show four straight days of U.S. crypto ETF inflows, but still a fraction of prior cycle highs.

Cross-crypto color

• Ether (ETH): $4,023.21, −1.1%
• XRP: flat
• BNB: −1.0%
• Solana / Cardano: −1.5% to −2.0%
• Dogecoin: −2.1%
• $TRUMP: +11.4%, extending gains after Trump Media flagged a prediction-market feature on Truth Social with Crypto.com.

Technical/tactical view (neutral to mildly bearish)

• Failure to hold above $116k keeps the near-term tone heavy.
• Resistance: $116k–$118k supply zone.
• Support: $111k–$112k (recent pivot); below that opens $108k–$109k.
• Into the Fed, expect vol-spikes around real-yield and USD moves; rallies may fade unless guidance softens meaningfully.

What to watch

• FOMC statement & Powell presser: path of cuts, inflation language, QT cadence.
• Real yields/DXY reaction in the first 1–3 hours post-decision.
• Trade headlines from the Trump–Xi summit and any tariff/export-control signals.
• ETF flow prints this week for confirmation of a sustained demand turn.