Bitcoin advanced on Monday, building on a weekend bounce as cooler rhetoric around the U.S.–China trade dispute and expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts encouraged broader risk-taking across crypto markets.
The largest cryptocurrency rose 3.5% to $110,608, recovering from last week’s trough near $103,000 that followed an escalation in U.S.–China tensions. Sentiment also steadied alongside gains in other risk assets, with traders leaning into the view that the Fed could cut rates later in October.
Trade Tone Turns Less Hostile
The recovery gathered pace after President Donald Trump signaled that a prolonged trade war with China was “not sustainable,” while indicating plans to speak with President Xi Jinping in about two weeks. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said high-level talks with Chinese officials would continue this week. The more conciliatory tone cooled bets on sweeping 100% tariffs, trimming a key macro headwind that had weighed on risk assets—including crypto—earlier in the month.
Macro Backdrop: Shutdown Uncertainty Persists
Lingering concerns over U.S. economic momentum remain a drag, with a continuing government shutdown delaying several key data releases ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. The temporary lack of visibility has kept volatility elevated across macro-sensitive assets, crypto included.
Altcoins Rebound; Ether Reclaims $4K
The updraft broadened beyond Bitcoin. Ether climbed 4.1% to $4,057.96, reclaiming the psychologically important $4,000 mark. XRP gained 4.2% to $2.4510, BNB rose 3.6% to $1,130.20, while Solana and Cardano advanced 3.2% and 5.4%, respectively. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin added 5.6% and $TRUMP increased 2.2%.
Seasonality Check: ‘Uptober’ Stalls
Despite Monday’s rally, the market remains softer for the month. Both Bitcoin and Ether are down roughly 2% apiece in October, diverging from the historical pattern of outperformance often dubbed “Uptober.”
Outlook
Near-term direction hinges on two swing factors: the durability of the improved U.S.–China tone and clarity from the Fed. A definitive de-escalation in trade risks or a dovish policy signal could extend the rebound, while renewed tariff threats or a more hawkish-than-expected Fed would likely re-ignite pressure across crypto majors.