Bitcoin Extends Modest Gains

Bitcoin rose slightly in Asian trade on Monday, supported by firm expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was up 0.7% at $116,527.3 by 06:01 GMT, extending last week’s gains of nearly 5%.

Despite the upward momentum, Bitcoin remained rangebound, still well below its mid-August peaks. The coin has struggled to fully recover from earlier selloffs driven by profit-taking and renewed doubts over the sustainability of corporate Bitcoin treasuries.

Corporate Treasury Model Under Scrutiny

Concerns over the long-term viability of corporate treasuries as a major Bitcoin buying force capped gains. Market sentiment was dented after the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin was rejected from inclusion in the S&P 500 index, raising questions about how much longer the treasury-led demand trend can persist.

Analysts noted that without broader index inclusion, the corporate treasury model could face structural limitations, reducing its impact as a driver of Bitcoin demand compared to earlier in the year.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Support Sentiment

Crypto markets are firmly focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later this week. Fed fund futures indicate a 99.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut, with only a slim chance the Fed keeps rates unchanged.

Lower interest rates typically benefit speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies by increasing liquidity and reducing the appeal of traditional yield-bearing assets. However, uncertainty persists around the Fed’s longer-term easing trajectory, as policymakers remain cautious about persistent inflationary pressures.

Altcoins Struggle After Strong Week

While Bitcoin managed modest gains, broader crypto markets slipped on Monday as investors booked profits following last week’s recovery.

• Ether held steady at $4,669.36
• XRP slipped 1.1% to $3.0581
• Solana dropped 1.4%
• Cardano lost 2.5%
• Among meme tokens, Dogecoin fell 3.7%, while $TRUMP retreated 1.3%

This divergence highlights how Bitcoin remains relatively resilient compared to the wider digital asset space, though both are still lagging broader equity market rallies.

Outlook

Bitcoin’s near-term direction hinges on the Federal Reserve’s policy outcome and subsequent forward guidance. A 25 bps cut appears fully priced in, but any signals of a deeper easing cycle could provide fresh upside momentum. Conversely, lingering doubts over corporate treasuries and sticky inflation remain key headwinds for sustained gains.