Bitcoin fell below the six-figure mark on Friday, mirroring a broader risk-off move as traders sharply reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and institutional inflows stayed sparse.

By 05:00 GMT, Bitcoin (BTC) was down 4.2% at $97,795, after touching an intraday low of $96,866—its weakest level since May. The token was on track for a third straight weekly decline.

Fed repricing drains risk appetite

Markets have rapidly priced out a December cut, with CME FedWatch showing ~45% odds of a 25 bp reduction versus ~64% a week earlier. The 43-day U.S. government shutdown, formally ended Wednesday, has muddied the data outlook: officials signaled October jobs and inflation reports may not be released, leaving the Fed short of evidence to justify fresh easing. That uncertainty has supported the dollar and real yields, pressuring speculative assets including crypto.

Institutional demand cools

Flows remained a headwind. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded ~$897 million of net outflows on Thursday and were poised for a third consecutive week of redemptions, reflecting diminished risk appetite among asset managers and corporate treasuries. With BTC stuck in a tight range through October/early November, momentum signals have deteriorated, curbing dip-buying interest.

Altcoins underperform

Selling broadened across majors: Ether (ETH) −9.3% to $3,161, BNB −5.4%, XRP −8%, while Solana and Cardano fell 8.5%–9%. Meme tokens were also weaker, with Dogecoin and $TRUMP down >7% apiece.

Market view & levels

• Macro grip: Without clear U.S. data, policy uncertainty likely keeps crypto sensitive to rates and dollar moves.
• Flows: Sustained ETF outflows and muted treasury buying argue for choppy liquidity and fragile rebounds.
• Key zones (spot BTC): Support $96.5k–$95k; a break risks $92k–$90k. Resistance $100k–$102k; regaining $105k would ease immediate downside pressure.

Crypto’s slide reflects a hawkish-leaning Fed setup and softening institutional sponsorship. Near-term stabilization hinges on rate expectations easing and flows turning less negative; absent that, rallies may stall below the $100k–$105k band.