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Bitcoin and Broader Crypto Markets Struggle Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty and Hawkish Fed

Bitcoin fell slightly on Friday, continuing its trend of moderate losses for the second consecutive week, while broader crypto markets showed little movement. Despite an improvement in broader risk appetite following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay a decision on U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, the world’s largest cryptocurrency remained locked in a tight trading range established since hitting record highs in early June.

At 01:58 ET (05:58 GMT), Bitcoin was down 0.3%, trading at $104,580.4. It was on track to record a mild weekly loss of around 0.8%, largely staying within the $103,000 to $108,000 range.

Limited Market Movement Despite Risk-On Sentiment

The broader crypto market, including Bitcoin, remained relatively stagnant, showing little enthusiasm despite U.S. President Trump’s postponement of a decision regarding a potential U.S. military strike on Iran. This delay helped alleviate some immediate concerns about the U.S. escalating its involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, although the two-week deadline set by Trump left markets somewhat uncertain. Trump’s frequent use of “two weeks” as a placeholder for delayed policy decisions added to this uncertainty.

While the delay in military action soothed some concerns, the comment did not spur significant movement in the crypto space. Other risk-driven markets, including Asian stocks and currencies, did experience a positive uptick, but Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remained largely rangebound.

Impact of the Hawkish Fed on Crypto Sentiment

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone earlier this week continued to weigh on crypto prices, with the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged reinforcing concerns about high borrowing costs. The Fed’s non-committal stance on future rate cuts, combined with its warning that persistent inflation may prevent further easing, kept speculative assets like cryptocurrencies under pressure.

While the Fed’s forecast for two rate cuts in 2025 remains intact, it slightly reduced its forecast for 2026 rate cuts, signaling a longer period of elevated interest rates. This “higher for longer” stance is especially detrimental to speculative markets such as crypto, as it limits the capital available for investment in riskier assets. The impact of the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 had already been felt in the crypto market, which saw a prolonged downturn until its recovery in late 2023 and early 2024.

Altcoins Perform Similarly

Broader altcoins followed Bitcoin’s trend of limited movement. Ethereum (ETH) remained flat at $2,520.12, while XRP fell 0.2% to $2.1519. Solana saw a small rise of 0.2%, but Cardano dipped 0.9%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin dropped 1.1%, and the $TRUMP token fell 1.6%.

Looking Ahead

Despite a slight bounce in broader risk assets, the crypto market remains cautious, with uncertainty around geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s stance on interest rates continuing to overshadow any short-term bullish potential. Investors are likely to stay cautious ahead of any developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict and closely watch the Fed’s actions in the coming months. For now, Bitcoin and its peers remain trapped within a narrow trading range, with limited momentum in either direction.

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