Big Tech Bloodbath or AI Boom? Q4 2025 Earnings Ignite the Ultimate AI Showdown

As of January 29, 2026, the Magnificent Seven’s earnings season is exploding, with hyperscalers dumping billions into AI infrastructure amid scrutiny over returns. Combined 2026 CapEx for Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon could top $470-500B, up from $350B in 2025. Meta crushes estimates, Tesla beats despite declines, Microsoft stumbles on cloud slowdowns, and Apple tees up today.


Meta Goes Nuclear: $135B AI War Chest Sends Shares Soaring 10%


Meta Platforms (META) smashed Q4 2025 expectations with revenue of $59.89B (up 24% YoY), beating $58.4B forecasts, and EPS of $8.88 (vs. $8.19 expected). Net income hit $22.77B (up 9%). AI-powered ads drove gains, with Q1 2026 guidance at $53.5-56.5B (above $51.4B consensus). The bombshell: 2026 CapEx at $115-135B (nearly double 2025’s $72.2B) for AI infrastructure. Shares surged ~10% after-hours as Zuckerberg pushes “superintelligence.”


Microsoft Hits the Brakes: Cloud Slowdown Tanks Shares 7%

Microsoft (MSFT) reported Q2 FY2026 (calendar Q4 2025) revenue of $81.3B (up 17%), topping $80.3B estimates, with GAAP net income at $38.5B (up 60%) and adjusted EPS of $4.14 (beat $3.97). Azure grew 38% in constant currency, but overall cloud slowed amid capacity issues and rising AI costs. Guidance met expectations, yet shares plunged ~7% post-earnings on monetization fears. Intelligent Cloud hit $32.9B (up 29%).


Tesla Defies Gravity: First Annual Revenue Drop, But Beats & Rises 3%.

Tesla (TSLA) posted Q4 revenue of $24.9B (down 3% YoY), with full-year at $94.8B (down from $97.7B)—its first annual decline. Adjusted EPS beat at $0.50 (vs. $0.45), gross margin rose to 20.1%, and energy storage hit record $3.84B (up 25.5%). Optimus robots on track for end-2026 production; $2B invested in xAI. Shares climbed ~3% after-hours, betting on AI/robotics pivot amid EV slowdowns.


Apple Under Fire Today: iPhone & Services in Spotlight

Apple (AAPL) reports fiscal Q1 2026 (calendar Q4 2025) after close on Jan. 29. Consensus: revenue ~$138-139B (up 11% YoY), EPS ~$2.67. Focus on iPhone 17 demand, services (~$30B), China recovery, and early AI features. Pre-earnings sentiment cautiously optimistic; conference call at 5 PM ET.


The AI Arms Race Heats Up: Alphabet, Amazon & Nvidia Next


Alphabet and Amazon report early February; Nvidia later. Markets split: bold AI bets rewarded, but slowdown signals punished.

Bottom Line Fire: AI CapEx hits records, but returns are key. Meta dominates, Microsoft warns, Tesla pivots, and Apple could swing momentum. 2026: Make-or-break for Big Tech’s AI gamble.