Barclays says Apple September quarter guidance could miss Street estimates

In a letter to investors on Wednesday, Barclays analysts expressed their concern that Apple’s forecast for the September quarter would fall short of market expectations.

Despite the likely miss, the analysts said it’s not obvious that it matters for the stock because “bulls may expect a stronger Dec-Q.” They rate the stock as Equal Weight and have a $149 price target.

“We expect broadly in-line June Q as better services revenue (led by App Store, TAC also above) offsetting weaker hardware revenue, though iPhone channel fill and incremental better FX vs. guidance (2 points FX upside) can mute some of the downside for hardware,” they wrote.

“More importantly, Sep-Q hardware guide could miss Street estimates due to IP15 delay and some IP15 pro model units shifting to Dec-Q.”

According to the company’s checks in Asia, the iPhone 15 is three to four weeks behind schedule as a result of production issues with the huge screen, camera module, and titanium alloy housing. They further claim that base models have a problem with the manufacture of CMOS picture sensors.

“Our latest checks also indicate iPhone sell-through in China decelerated to HSD declines in July, another bad data point for Sep-Q,” they added.