AUD/USD Pressured On RBA’s Lowe’s Comments

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Phillip Lowe has said that it is ”plausible we could raise rates later this year depending on economy.” He added that he hasn’t said rates won’t go up. AUD could get a lift on such rhetoric, but there hasn’t been any knee-jerk reaction thus far. 

“We have scope to wait and see how the data develop and how some of the uncertainties are resolved,” said Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe during a testimony at a virtual hearing before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics on early Friday morning in Asia-Pacific region.

Key Comments

Estimate that GDP increased by around 5 percent over 2021 and are expecting GDP growth of around 4¼ per cent over 2022 and 2 percent over 2023.

Upswing in business investment is also under way.

The board is prepared to be patient.

Macroeconomic policy settings are supportive of growth.

We have scope to wait and see how the data develop and how some of the uncertainties are resolved.

I recognize that there is a risk to waiting but there is also a risk to moving too early.

Forward-looking indicators suggest further growth in jobs over the months ahead.

Moving too early could put employment goal at risk.

Main source of uncertainty about the outlook continues to be COVID-19.

Stronger the economy and the more upward pressure on prices and wages, the stronger will be the case for an increase in interest rates.

Sharp pick-up in inflation in parts of the world, especially in the US, has come as a surprise and is an additional source of uncertainty.

Too early to conclude that inflation is sustainably in the target range.

We expect a further lift in underlying inflation.

Further pick-up in overall wages growth is expected.

It is entirely possible that countries with higher inflation rates will need a bigger adjustment in interest rates than currently anticipated.