After Pennsylvania polls, US dollar hits a new nine-day low

Monday saw a decline in the value of the US dollar as Ipsos surveys predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the US presidential election.

With the FOMC meeting taking place amid uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, traders are in for a highly tumultuous week. The US dollar index seeks support after falling below 104.00.

After a final poll released by ABC News and Ipsos showed Vice President Kamala Harris winning by 49% versus 46% for former President Donald Trump, the US dollar (USD) erases Friday’s gains and declines on all fronts on Monday. The New York Times, which published data showing that Harris is leading in five of the seven swing states that will decide the outcome of the US presidential election, is another factor contributing to further US dollar weakening.

The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for the third quarter, which is scheduled out come Monday, is an extremely intriguing component of the US economic calendar that should also be taken into account. The conditions, supply, and demand of loans given to US consumers will be further discussed in the paper. One excellent way to predict how the economy will develop over the next few weeks and months is to look at the distribution of loans.

The US economic calendar, on the other hand, must also be taken into account. This Monday, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for the third quarter is scheduled to take place. More information about the terms, availability, and demand of loans given to US consumers will be provided in the report. One of the best leading indicators for predicting how the economy will develop over the next few weeks and months is the distribution of loans.

In September, factory orders decreased by 0.5%, which was about what was expected given the prior loss of 0.2% of -0.4%.
At 19:00 GMT, the third quarter’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) will be released.
The favorable Harris polls have made Chinese stocks quite happy, and they ended Monday’s trading session in the green. US equity futures and European stocks are still searching for a direction.
There is a 99.7% chance that the CME FedWatch Tool will support a 25 basis point (bps) interest-rate drop at Thursday’s meeting, while the odds of rates staying the same are only 0.3%.
The US 10-year benchmark rate is currently trading at 4.29%, which is less than its closing rate of 4.38% on Friday.

USD Technical Analysis:

Trading the US dollar requires prudence as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to start a volatile period this week. Massive swings, primarily headline-driven, possibly ambiguous direction, and swift movements are to be expected in the days following the election. It is necessary to take into account larger levels as potential outcomes, such as 102.11 on the downside and 105.53 on the upside.

Before thinking about a recovery toward 105.00 and above, the DXY must first reclaim control of the two important levels it gave up on Monday. First up are the huge figure of 104.00 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.84. The second component is last week’s high.

The first line of defense on the downside is the crucial level at 103.18 (the high from March 12) and the 100-day SMA at 103.12. Instead, watch for 101.90 and the 55-day SMA at 102.11 as a significant support level in the event of swift and erratic movements this week. An journey below 101.00 would be feasible if that level breaks.