GBP/USD weakening as investors focus on US data

The GBP/USD pair has not recovered much after Tuesday’s steep drop, but it is currently trading around 1.2644. This week’s UK data is scarce as investors prioritize US labour and economic activity data. Leading the way is the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, whose December PMI surpassed forecasts but staying in contraction zone.

The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index also beat expectations, coming in at 48.1 against the forecast 46.1, a healthy uptick from the previous four-month low of 45.8. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid settled lower than expected, coming in at 45.2 compared to the forecast 47.5, and easing back even further from November’s 49.9.

The Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting minutes, which are scheduled for release at 19:00 GMT at the end of the US session, will be the source of Wednesday’s major data beat. In an effort to temper irrational market expectations that went off course following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s alleged rate flip in December, Fed officials have been working extra hard.

Results, however, have been inconsistent, and market expectations of a sharper rate-cutting pace in 2024 have barely decreased.

ADP Employment Change figures for December are released on Thursday, providing a sneak peek into Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). However, of late, there has been an unsteady correlation between the indicator and the more substantial, larger, and later data releases. Investors should anticipate a mixed bag of results in terms of the figures.

The US dollar is still holding a significant lead over the pound sterling, with the GBP/USD ratio down about 1.5% from its peak of 1.2828 last week.