Brent could test $80s lows if macro impact continues

For the month of October, both crude oil and refined products have generally traded sideways. Analysts at Rabobank examine Brent’s prospects. Brent will at some point in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024 reach $100, but not on average. Brent is trading at $85.20 at the time of writing, as WTI crude oil is down -1.96%; trading at $80.65 per barrel.

If the demand for petrol continues to decline, this would indicate that the economic picture has gotten worse as well, which would cause a $10–12/bbl financial sell-off in Brent and WTI. The long-term physical outlook and prevailing geopolitical concerns, however, will diminish this.

Brent could reach the low $80s if macro worries keep driving up prices. Economists continue to predict that at some point in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024, Brent will approach, but not average, $100/bbl.