Oil surges ahead of the weekend on supply concerns

WTI soared on Friday, posting a fourth straight weekly increase as it reached the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $76.82. With a 1.89% weekly gain, WTI crude oil also increased by more than 1% near $76.80.

On Friday, oil prices increased by more than $1 a barrel, supported by mounting evidence of supply bottlenecks in the months to come and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine that could further disrupt supplies.

By 1:08 p.m. EDT (1708 GMT), the price of Brent crude futures increased $1.24, or 1.6%, to $80.88 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude for the United States increased $1.28 or 1.7% to $76.93 a barrel. The oil market is on course for its fourth week of price hikes as it is beginning to gradually price in an impending supply shortfall.

Due to recent economic downturns, Chinese regulators are anticipated to lower mortgage rates to encourage homebuying in the country’s second-largest economy. Lower interest rates in the largest oil importer could boost the economy. Traders are evaluating data on inflation, retail sales, the housing market, and jobless claims; on the other hand, the American calendar won’t have anything relevant to offer, and traders continue to assess the latest set of inflation, retail sales, the housing market and jobless claims data from the US.

For next week’s decision, markets are mainly discounting a 25 basis point hike, but the odds of a second week past July have dropped nearly 35%. In addition, markets will closely watch Jerome Powell’s presser to look for clues regarding forward guidance.

The bulls managed to get a final chance to retake the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If they fail, the price could plunge as buying momentum displays weakness as per the indicators on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stand with a slight positive slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints lower green bars.

Next week’s rate announcements from the Fed, ECB, and BoJ will likely add some volatility to the mix, along with flash readings on PMIs, consumer confidence, GDP, and inflation. The US dollar will probably continue to be volatile, despite recovering some of its recent losses this week.

It’s likely to have an effect on commodities like gold, which is coming off a two-month high. On supply concerns, the prices of wheat, natural gas, and oil rose 2% to 10% at the conclusion of the week.