Gold Index at key $1,970 resistance, busy week ahead

At $1,947, the gold price is underwater in mid-New York Trade. The price hs range traded between a high of $1,970.02 and a low of $1,940.03 on the day so far. Traders have already seen good volatility in financial and commodity markets owing to the French elections, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and central bank jitters. Meanwhile, it is going to be a busy week ahead and gold could be on the verge of a breakout.

The gold price has been range-trading since mid-March, potentially accumulating the 2022 rally and ripening for a bullish continuation. This is despite the hawkish narrative surrounding the Federal Reserve. All the shorts have been wiped out and ETF inflows have slowed as the fear trade subsides.

Gold us perhaps moving towards a significant drawdown as inflows could subside alongside an increase to short positioning, or the resilience in prices is reflecting a different set of information. In this context, the gold market could be incorporating some skepticism that the neutral rate required to tame inflation is significantly higher given the inflationary shock is driven by the supply-side, while increasing recession fears offer further support to the gold bulls.

With this in mind, economic events will be critical this week, and there is an array of the goings-on in this regard that could turn out to be catalysts for the gold price. UK Employment, US Consumer Price Index on Tuesday will be the first major economic data to help unveil the health of the global economy.

The US inflation data will likely supersede on the day, with strong prices for March reinforcing the hawkish outlook at the Fed, potentially supportive of the US dollar and weight for the price of gold. On the other hand, some analysts have warned that the Fed could be hiking into recession.

The Fed’s main policy error was to ignore the rise in inflation last year and get blindsided. This has set in motion a wage-price spiral that will be very difficult to reverse without hiking the economy into recession.

Other key events for the week that could adjust the needle of the gold price include the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision, UK inflation and the Bank of Canada’s rate decision on Wednesday. Then, the Australia jobs report, European Central Bank rate decision, and US Retail Sales will all fall on Thursday.

Technically, the bulls are moving in s they take on critical resistances of $1,950 and $1,970 at the start of the week. The price is forming a bullish structure on the 4-hour chart in and above the $1,930s. If this holds the test of time, then the bis will stay with the bulls for the foreseeable future with ‘blue skies’ in the $2,000s eyed.