Market Drivers – US Session – 4 April

Most major currency pairs struggled to find direction on Monday, as market participants remained cautious ahead of the announcement of new sanctions on Russia. The EUR was the worst performer and the AUD was the best one.

Economic Data

The Bank of Canada released its latest Business Outlook Survey and the headline indicator dipped back to 4.98 in Q1 2022 from the record high of 5.9 it hit in Q4 2021. The BOS survey was conducted before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a special survey that was conducted in March showed that about half of firms said they expected to impacted by the war, mostly through higher commodity prices.

Other Developments

The market’s focus remained on the Eastern Europe crisis. As announced, Moscow has moved troops away from Ukraine’s northern region. However, Kyiv reported the massive assassination of civilians and war crimes, which resulted in western nations announcing plans to add sanctions on the Kremlin.

French President Emmanuel Macron called to add sanctions on Moscow, while Germany and France decided to expel Russian diplomats from their countries. The US is also preparing more sanctions against Putin & Co. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that considering what Russia has done in the country, it’s difficult to negotiate with them.

The EUR/USD pair trades at around 1.0960, while AUD/USD trades near a fresh 2022 high of 0.7555. The GBP/USD pair is stable at around 1.3110, while USD/CAD hovers around 1.2485. The USD/JPY pair is unchanged at around 122.80, as USDCHF changes hands at 0.9260.

Gold advanced within range, finishing the day at around $1,930 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices edged also higher, with WTI settling at 103.80.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note stands at 2.42%, while that on the 2-year note is currently at 2.43%. The inverted yield curve spurred recession-related concerns, although the market’s reaction has been limited so far. Nevertheless, mounting concerns hint at potential gains of safe-haven assets.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Monday on persisting supply concerns as Russian energy sanctions are very much on the table following the Russian forces’ civilian killings in north Ukraine. For a fresh high of the day, at $103.82. WTI spot is up by some 4.5% as White House’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, announced that the US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia.

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EUR/USD to retest 1.09 fairly quickly on a sustained push under 1.10