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Market Drivers – US Session – 4 March

The US dollar has benefited from two main things ; firstly, it is looked upon as a safe-haven currency, meaning this week’s choppy equity market conditions weighed on GBP/USD.

Secondly, though the BoE does have a head start versus the Fed having kicked off its hiking cycle at the end of last year, traders are confident that short-term US rates will soon surpass those in the UK.

Fed Chair this week gave guidance that the Fed’s hiking cycle will begin later this month with a 25bps hike and be followed by series more over the course of the year.

Economic Data
Employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, from 4% in January, extending a sharp decline in joblessness to its lowest level since before the pandemic erupted two years ago.

Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil was down by three to 519 this week. That followed increases in each of the last five weeks, Baker Hughes data show.

The total active US rig count, which includes those drilling for natural gas, was unchanged at 650, according to Baker Hughes. Oil prices continued to rally in Friday dealings, finding continued support from Russia invasion of Ukraine.

Other Developments
The White House on Friday confirmed earlier reports that it is looking at options to cut US consumption of Russian energy. The White House labelled Russia’s attack on a nuclear plant in Ukraine as the “height of irresponsibility” and said that targeting civilian infrastructure would constitute a war crime.

Bitcoin now trades at a new March low of $40,551 for BTC/USD, taking two-day losses to 10.2%. Fears over the security of Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure drove not just crypto but traditional markets lower on the day, with the S&P 500 following European indexes to decline by 1.4%.

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