NFP Preview: Forecasts From Four Major Banks

The Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show an increase of 870,000 jobs in July.

Here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of four major banks regarding NFP report.

Deutsche Bank

“We are forecasting that NFP will have risen by +1M in July, which would be the fastest pace of job growth since last August. And in turn, we see that bringing the unemployment rate down to a post-pandemic low of 5.6%. July is a seasonally weak month for hiring so the seasonal adjustment is strong. In a year as unusual as this there is high uncertainty as to what impact the seasonals will actually have. So it’s clear that the margin for error could be high.”

SocGen

“We see another strong US employment report for July (825K jobs). We look for the unemployment rate to fall in July after the surprising increase in June to 5.9%. Job gains from the household employment report used in the unemployment rate calculation were flat. Historically, household employment readings are choppier. We expect a much larger gains for July that, when averaged out, show similar trends to the NFP report.”

TDS

“Payrolls probably surged in July, with the pace up again after a 850K rise in June and 583K in May. Our +1M forecast implies significant further ‘progress’ for Fed officials, but the progress will likely still not be viewed as ‘substantial’ enough for tapering and we don’t expect the data for August to be as strong as the data for July. We forecast another 0.3% MoM rise in average hourly earnings. The 12-month change is likely to rise again to 3.8% from 3.6% in June.”

CIBC

“Job creation likely heated up in the US in July as higher wages along with recruitment efforts could have paid off for employers in service sectors.It’s likely that hiring accelerated to 1010K in July, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.6%. We’re above the consensus which could be supportive for the USD and bond yields.”