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The USD/CAD pair successfully achieved the first target outlined in our previous technical report at 1.3630, maintaining its anticipated downward trajectory.
Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe:
On the shorter timeframes, the simple moving averages have resumed their role as dynamic resistance, exerting consistent downward pressure on price action. This bearish bias is further validated by clear negative signals on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains pressured despite entering oversold territory.
Likely Scenario:
As long as the pair remains stable below the 1.3680 resistance level, the downward trend remains the preferred outlook. Our next primary objective is 1.3620, where a decisive break lower would likely extend losses toward 1.3590.
Conversely, a sustained move above 1.3690 would invalidate the current bearish setup, potentially triggering a recovery toward 1.3740.
Note: The market is bracing for significant volatility today following the release of high-impact U.S. Retail Sales data (March). Consensus estimates anticipate a sharp 1.4% month-over-month increase, largely driven by energy prices. A deviation from this figure could lead to aggressive price swings as traders recalibrate Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
Caution: The level of risk remains elevated due to ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions. All scenarios remain possible; traders should exercise heightened vigilance.
Risk note
Headline risk is elevated. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these trigger levels give way.
| S1: 1.3620 | R1: 1.3690 |
| S2: 1.3590 | R2: 1.3740 |
| S3: 1.3540 | R3: 1.3770 |
