Oil Prices Steady as Iran Unrest Collides With Venezuela Supply Hopes

Oil prices held largely steady in Asian trading on Monday, as markets balanced the growing risk of supply disruptions from escalating unrest in Iran against the prospect of additional barrels returning from Venezuela.

Brent crude futures for March delivery edged up 0.1% to $63.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1% to $59.15 a barrel. Both benchmarks closed more than 3% higher last week, buoyed by a sharp rise in geopolitical tensions.

Traders remained cautious at the start of the week, weighing two opposing forces that could shape near-term price direction. On one side is the risk of supply shocks from the Middle East, particularly Iran. On the other is the potential for Venezuelan oil to re-enter global markets under a shifting U.S. policy stance.

Iran Protests Raise Supply Disruption Risks

Attention is firmly fixed on Iran, one of the Middle East’s largest oil producers, where widespread anti-government protests have intensified in recent days. Rights groups report that more than 500 people have been killed in the unrest, underscoring the severity of the situation.

Iranian officials have warned that U.S. military bases in the region would be targeted if Washington intervenes in support of protesters. Such rhetoric has heightened fears of a broader regional confrontation, especially one that could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows.

U.S. President Donald Trump has adopted an increasingly hard line, saying last week that Washington would not stand by if Iranian authorities continue their violent crackdown.

Iran is the fourth-largest member of OPEC, producing roughly 3.2 million barrels per day. Any meaningful disruption to that output would represent a significant shock to global supply. As analysts note, this leaves a substantial risk premium hanging over the oil market.

Venezuela’s Return Caps the Upside

Offsetting these concerns are developments in Venezuela, where Washington has signaled that it may begin easing restrictions on the country’s oil sector.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said further sanctions against Venezuela could be lifted as early as this week to facilitate renewed oil sales. President Trump also stated that Caracas is prepared to hand over as much as 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil to the United States.

The prospect of Venezuelan barrels returning to the market has acted as a ceiling on oil’s recent rally. Even so, major energy companies remain wary. ExxonMobil has described Venezuela as effectively uninvestable without substantial political and legal reforms, highlighting the structural and governance risks that continue to cloud the country’s energy outlook.

With Iran threatening potential supply disruptions and Venezuela offering the promise of new output, oil markets are entering the week caught between scarcity and surplus. That tension is likely to keep prices rangebound in the near term, while volatility remains elevated amid an increasingly fragile geopolitical backdrop.