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Oil prices rose modestly in European trading on Tuesday as volatility eased and traders continued to assess the implications of the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the political transition now under way in the country.
Crude benchmarks ended higher after a turbulent session on Monday, when prices swung sharply as markets priced in a higher geopolitical risk premium. Still, investors struggled to determine how a potential U.S.-led restructuring of Venezuela’s oil sector might ultimately affect global supply dynamics.
A mix of profit-taking and dollar strength limited upside momentum on Tuesday, while crude markets were also still reeling from their steepest annual decline in five years in 2025 amid persistent concerns over a potential supply glut in 2026.
By 04:58 ET (09:58 GMT), Brent crude futures for March were up 0.2% at $61.89 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.2% to $58.42 a barrel.
Delcy Rodríguez sworn in as interim Venezuelan president
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president on Monday following Maduro’s capture. Although she voiced support for Maduro, it remains unclear whether she intends to openly challenge the U.S. intervention.
Reports indicated that U.S. intelligence agencies view Rodríguez as the most viable figure to lead a transitional administration. Maduro appeared in a New York court on Monday, pleading not guilty to narcotics-related charges and insisting he remains Venezuela’s legitimate president.
The operation — conducted without approval from Congress, according to President Donald Trump — stunned global markets. Trump signaled that Washington would temporarily assume control of Venezuela and move to reopen the country’s oil sector to major U.S. energy companies.
Oil outlook hinges on stability and sanctions relief
Analysts said that broader participation by U.S. producers in Venezuela’s oil industry could eventually boost global supply and place downward pressure on prices. However, any meaningful recovery in production is likely to depend on a peaceful political transition that paves the way for the lifting of U.S. sanctions.
Even under favorable conditions, rebuilding Venezuela’s aging energy infrastructure would require significant investment and time. Ongoing political uncertainty may also discourage international firms from committing capital in the near term — particularly given the lack of clear guidance from Washington on how it intends to administer the country during the transition.
As a result, analysts expect little immediate change in Venezuela’s oil exports, with sanctions likely to remain in force for now and near-term supply risks appearing limited despite heightened geopolitical tensions.
