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Oil prices rose modestly in Asian trading on Thursday, supported by renewed attacks on Russian energy assets and stalled diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, even as weak U.S. demand data capped gains.
By 22:53 ET (03:53 GMT), February Brent futures were up 0.4% at $62.89 a barrel, while WTI crude futures gained 0.5% to $59.23 a barrel.
Strikes on Russian assets, stalled peace talks underpin prices
A Reuters report on Wednesday, citing sources, said Ukrainian forces had hit the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region, reigniting worries about potential disruptions to Russian crude exports.
At the same time, high-level peace talks between U.S. and Russian officials wrapped up on Tuesday without any breakthrough, dashing hopes that sanctions on Russian oil might soon be eased and keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.
U.S. inventories signal soft demand
The bullish impact of geopolitical tensions was tempered by data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which pointed to softer demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.
For the week ended November 28, U.S. crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels, confounding expectations for a 1.9 million-barrel draw.
Stocks of refined products also jumped:
- Gasoline inventories increased by 4.52 million barrels
- Distillate inventories climbed by 2.1 million barrels
The simultaneous build in crude, gasoline, and distillates underscored lingering demand weakness, offsetting much of the upside from geopolitics.
Fed cut bets lend additional support
Oil prices also found some support from growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next week’s policy meeting. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction.
Lower rates typically weaken the U.S. dollar and can spur economic activity, both of which are supportive for global fuel demand.
Easing expectations stayed firm after ADP data showed U.S. private payrolls shrank by 32,000 in November, a surprise decline following a revised gain the previous month and well below forecasts for an increase.
Separately, the ISM services index rose to 52.6 in November, its strongest reading in nine months, while underlying price components eased, hinting at a more benign inflation backdrop and reinforcing the case for Fed easing.
